This could now give rise to serious worries.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a significant system of ocean currents that transport warm water from the tropics into the North Atlantic, may collapse by the middle of the century or possibly at any time beginning in 2025, according to a study published on Tuesday.
The weather and environment in the US, Europe, and other places might quickly change as a result of such a collapse. If that occurred, the East Coast might experience hurricanes and storms with greater intensity, an ice age in Europe, a rise in sea level in major cities like Boston and New York, and an increase in sea level.
The central and western United States may experience noticeably less rain and snowfall as a result, according to the study’s authors.
It has been compared to earlier studies on the AMOC collapse, which used the scientifically incorrect ocean circulation shutdown as its plot device in the 2004 disaster movie “The Day After Tomorrow.”.
According to the study’s authors’ projection of future emissions, an AMOC collapse should take place around the middle of the century.
The AMOC collapse is one of a number of dangerous climate “tipping points” that scientists think are likely as a result of climate change.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is in fact one of the planet’s major circulation systems, according to Niklas Boers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, the author of a previous study on the topic.
Ocean water and air are carried by the AMOC to produce weather. Warm, salty water from the tropics flows north through the Gulf Stream to the North Atlantic, where it cools, sinks, and then flows south off the East Coast of the United States.
As it moves more quickly, more water is transported from the warm surface to the cooler depths.
The cycle cools the ocean off the coast of North America and keeps northern Europe’s temperature higher than it would be otherwise.
It was found by studies done in 2018 and 2021 that the AMOC might implode this century.
Using new statistical methods and information on ocean temperature from the previous 150 years, researchers came to the conclusion that the AMOC will end with a 95 percent probability between 2025 and 2095.
Professor Susanne Ditlevsen of the University of Copenhagen and a research co-author said, “Using new and improved statistical tools, we’ve made calculations that provide a more robust estimate of when a collapse is most likely to occur.”.
Observations of early warning signs that ocean currents exhibit when they begin to become unstable lend credence to the researchers’ prediction.
The calculations refute the central tenet of the most recent IPCC assessment, which holds that an abrupt change in the AMOC is “unlikely” to take place this century.
Co-author of the study and University of Copenhagen graduate Peter Ditlevsen says, “Our result underscores the importance of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible. ”.
The study’s co-authors, Peter and Susanne Ditlevsen, told USA TODAY that the melting of Greenland ice is accelerated by greenhouse gas emissions, which causes global warming.
As a result, the melted freshwater entering the North Atlantic may disturb the AMOC, possibly resulting in significant climatic changes.
The Ditlevsens claimed that as Greenland’s enhanced meltwater increases, freshwater, which is lighter than the nearby salty seawater, is introduced into the North Atlantic. The AMOC may become weak or even stop functioning as a result of the additional freshwater interfering with the way saltwater normally sinks. Due to the AMOC’s extensive impacts on weather patterns and ocean currents, a collapse of the AMOC could lead to significant changes in the climate.
Experts who were not affiliated with the study have given conflicting opinions on the study’s findings. Michael Mann, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania, said, “I’m not sure the writers contribute anything beyond a flashy statistical procedure. There have been many inaccurate predictions made throughout history using sophisticated statistical techniques—often too sophisticated for their own good.
Meanwhile, Stefan Rahmstorf of the German Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research told USA TODAY that while “a single study provides little data, this must be regarded very carefully when many methodologies lead to comparable conclusions.
especially when we’re talking about a risk that we want to completely eliminate. The available scientific data suggests that we may even cross a tipping point within the next ten or twenty years.
The most recent study “adds to the evidence that the AMOC tipping point is much closer than we thought just a few years ago,” but there is still a lot of uncertainty about where it is.
